There are parts of your essay that make sense. Europeans absolutely should have prepared for the worst case scenarios and underinvest in defence. Particularly in relation to GDP, with the possible exceptions of Poland and the Baltics.
But a grand strategic bargain with Russia? We tried that. We tried growing rich with trading with them and they blew that to pieces. While lying about the reasons.
Yes, improbably, with the USA rogue and Russia irredeemably aggressive, Europe (which has worked to counter destabilizing PRC influences) needs a heightened relationship of equilibrium with China. China's no limits Axis with Russia is less compelling for Beijing, and they had not counted on the massive capture of the USG by Moscow. Among these players, PRC may add strategic equilibrium to the EU as it comes under siege by Moscow, Vichy USA, and mendacious billionaires anxious to overthrow European institutions and transparency.
Ukraine was perfectly positioned to maintain its independence by balancing the US and Russia as both Finland and Austria had done during the cold war. Instead they turned themselves into a tool for US to weaken Russia. Naturally the Russians didn't like this and attacked and the US is about to drop its tool because it is no further use.
It is not just Europe that needs to do the unthinkable, it is also other countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
The US has an incredible capacity to get its Allies/Satellites to commit economic suicide.
This is an excellent essay. We must think the unthinkable & set aside our pre-existing biases. I have long felt that a joined up Europe with Russian energy, German industrial knowhow & UK services can produce a wealthy, prosperous future for the continent. This doesn’t mean throwing Ukraine under the bus. In fact, a Euro/Russia agreement on Russia could involve a rebuilding bond that would allow Ukraine to retain its mineral wealth & trade amicably with both sides. We want all sovereign nations to be strong, secure & able to generate future demand. The stupid zero sum political games must stop. And Europe should consider reintroducing domestic currencies with the Euro as the currency for trade across the continent. With strict rules about surpluses. It would resolve many of the problems with the bloc while allowing all boats to rise.
Yes the EU and UK should do all those things. But they won't. They need to trade with the US and politicians are thoroughly under the thumb of the States.
There are parts of your essay that make sense. Europeans absolutely should have prepared for the worst case scenarios and underinvest in defence. Particularly in relation to GDP, with the possible exceptions of Poland and the Baltics.
But a grand strategic bargain with Russia? We tried that. We tried growing rich with trading with them and they blew that to pieces. While lying about the reasons.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-157992714
The Russians also can not be trusted to hold a simple ceasefire. What hope of Putin et al sticking to a more substantial agreement?
https://www.counteroffensive.news/p/watching-helplessly-as-russia-broke
China is a more plausible partner, yet one with its own grave risks.
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/bad-partners
Yes, improbably, with the USA rogue and Russia irredeemably aggressive, Europe (which has worked to counter destabilizing PRC influences) needs a heightened relationship of equilibrium with China. China's no limits Axis with Russia is less compelling for Beijing, and they had not counted on the massive capture of the USG by Moscow. Among these players, PRC may add strategic equilibrium to the EU as it comes under siege by Moscow, Vichy USA, and mendacious billionaires anxious to overthrow European institutions and transparency.
Excellent piece.
Ukraine was perfectly positioned to maintain its independence by balancing the US and Russia as both Finland and Austria had done during the cold war. Instead they turned themselves into a tool for US to weaken Russia. Naturally the Russians didn't like this and attacked and the US is about to drop its tool because it is no further use.
It is not just Europe that needs to do the unthinkable, it is also other countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
The US has an incredible capacity to get its Allies/Satellites to commit economic suicide.
This is an excellent essay. We must think the unthinkable & set aside our pre-existing biases. I have long felt that a joined up Europe with Russian energy, German industrial knowhow & UK services can produce a wealthy, prosperous future for the continent. This doesn’t mean throwing Ukraine under the bus. In fact, a Euro/Russia agreement on Russia could involve a rebuilding bond that would allow Ukraine to retain its mineral wealth & trade amicably with both sides. We want all sovereign nations to be strong, secure & able to generate future demand. The stupid zero sum political games must stop. And Europe should consider reintroducing domestic currencies with the Euro as the currency for trade across the continent. With strict rules about surpluses. It would resolve many of the problems with the bloc while allowing all boats to rise.
Yes the EU and UK should do all those things. But they won't. They need to trade with the US and politicians are thoroughly under the thumb of the States.